LONDON, 16 July 2025 – A new study from market intelligence firm Permutable reveals a profound shift in global financial markets: trade sentiment now moves markets more decisively than traditional economic data.
Analysing 47 major trade-related events between September 2024 and July 2025, the study finds that geopolitical headlines and narrative momentum have overtaken backward-looking indicators like GDP and employment figures as the primary force behind cross-asset price movements. Permutable calls this transformation “sentiment is the new macro.”
At the centre of this insight is Permutable’s Trade Sentiment Index (TSI), a proprietary dataset that quantifies the tone, polarity, and volume of global trade-related news in real time. The TSI shows a correlation of +0.39 with S&P 500 movements, significantly outperforming traditional economic indicators in predicting market direction.
“We’re witnessing the death of the old macro playbook,” said Wilson Chan, CEO of Permutable. “Markets no longer wait for data releases – they pivot instantly on a single tariff threat.” One notable example from the study is the 17 percent single-day surge in copper prices in July, triggered by a U.S. tariff announcement – the largest one-day move on record for the metal.
This shift becomes particularly key as President Trump’s temporary tariff reprieve is set to expire on 1 August. Over 100 countries face the renewed prospect of levies, creating a backdrop of perpetual volatility. According to Permutable, markets are now being driven by the rapid evolution of narratives, rather than concrete fundamentals.
Recent market reactions highlight this sentiment-led volatility. The U.S. dollar index spiked above 97.00 on a mere rumour of 10 percent tariffs targeting BRICS nations. Gold, traditionally a safe haven, retreated from $3,339 to $3,311 on whispers of trade progress. Copper’s 17 percent leap was in direct response to a 50 percent tariff announcement. Even safe havens like Treasuries have started to exhibit violent price swings based on sentiment momentum rather than systemic economic risks.
“This is a structural shift,” said Jack Watson, Analyst at Permutable. “Markets are now reacting to narrative before the economic impact is felt. The reaction function has changed – and investors need to keep up.”
The study suggests that portfolio strategies must now be built around narrative volatility as much as traditional economic and geopolitical risks.
“In an era where perception moves faster than policy, sentiment is no longer noise – it’s signal,” the study concludes.
Permutable’s Trade Sentiment Index is built using advanced natural language processing to monitor and score global trade-related headlines by tone, polarity, volume, and topic intensity. Unlike traditional tools that lag behind events, the TSI provides a lead-time advantage by detecting narrative shifts before markets respond. It has proven especially effective in equities, commodities, FX, and rates, with the strongest signals observed in the S&P 500 and copper markets. Available via API, with custom alerting capabilities by asset class.
About Permutable
Permutable is redefining how investors navigate market volatility through real-time sentiment analysis and financial intelligence. Built for an era where headlines drive markets faster than economic data, the company’s solutions enable institutional investors to anticipate cross-asset moves across equities, commodities, FX, and rates.
